Caucus
Caucus is an RNZ podcast that examines New Zealand politics and election campaigns. Top political commentators offer frank and forthright analysis, helping listeners make sense of the campaign issues and debates. Each episode unpicks the strategies, personalities, and turning points shaping the race. It is produced for a New Zealand audience by RNZ.
Episodes
How's this election different? Disgruntlement, Opportunity, & First-termitis
The campaigns are launching and it's time to lock into politics New Zealand. Caucus returns to set the scene for Election 2026, discussing why incumbency sucks, strategic voting is controversial, and the minor parties are major players.Election 2026By Tim WatkinPolls leading into the campaign proper, which kicked off this week with Parliament rising and the two major parties holding their campaign
The four Cs that cost Labour and how National nicked Auckland
A mood for change swept National & friends into power, so this season's final Caucus breaks down the numbers, unpacks the swing in Auckland, & looks at the coalition niceties. And the team opens their envelopes to check their predictions.Election 2023By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - Election 2023 is done but certainly not dusted. Our 54th parliament has been chose
Long pants, Lazarus Peters, missing bits, & winners & losers
Wrapping up Election 2023, there's still plenty to play for ahead of election day. We review the highs and lows of Election 2023, unpack National's 'Winston Strategy', consider the missed opportunities and pick the seats to watch.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode here Analysis - What was National thinking? In Caucus this week, Guyon Espiner, Tim Watkin, Julian Wilcox and Lisa Owe
National and Labour's broken bungy and why we all need to grow up
Grumpy voters, crimes against candidates, desperate parties, unsophisticated MMP strategies and the return of John Key. As the campaign peaks, so does the tension.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereIn Caucus this week, Julian Wilcox, Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner and Tim Watkin look at the angry mood of the campaign. Candidates are suffering unacceptable threats from the public. So
What do you do with a problem like Winston?
National's decision to form a government with New Zealand First as "as a last resort" is both a plea and a warning. What might a "cocktail" with ACT and NZF taste like? Could Luxon hold it together? And is NZF a racist party?By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereThis week's Caucus looks at Christopher Luxon's landmark call to open the door to forming a government with N
The electorate swing, Labour limbo and Luxon-Hipkins two-step
Chris Hipkins needs a new song and dance routine and fast, or he could be doing the limbo and losing the next generation of Labour's leaders.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - Another poll, another 27 for Labour. It was July the last time one of the reputable TV company polls had Labour's poll percentage starting with a three, so the limbo question is now being
National, ACT & NZ First: Delivering the sun or just beach cricket?
Multiple polls point to a change of government. Is National passing the sniff test? Do voters really want ACT's 'real change' or a handbrake? We ask what a centre-right government might look like.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - David Seymour is usually more a talker than a fighter, an ideas man; but he's been flexing his political muscles during this electio
A campaign of fear and loathing? Nah, the facts matter more
Should we be worried about the election campaign going negative? Or is the greater worry party leaders who can't get their facts straight?By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - It's been all about the fear and loathing in campaign land this week, with every party accusing another of negativity, lies and the inability to run even the Venezuelan economy.The oft-forgo
Money or the bag: Major parties crashing into the centre
National's tax plan is a clever political document but raises questions about "heroic" numbers. We look at how much government spending doesn't change and what's up for grabs in coalition deals. Plus a quick visit to Ilam and Epsom.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - National's tax plan released this week was one of the big set pieces left in the Election 2023 c
Don't stop believing: ACT hits fawke in the road as Labour falls & National stalls
ACT endures scrutiny, Shane Jones impersonates Julie Andrews and we recall 1999, while Lacklustre Luxon and Ho Hum Hipkins fail to inspire.Election 2023By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - A new 1News Verian poll shows it is an uphill battle for the centre-left bloc, while ACT starts to feel the pressure of wanting to be treated like a big party. Does it risk blowing
National's yin and yang v Labour's frugal fear factor
With little money in the government's coffers heading into Election 2023, the Caucus podcast looks at how the two main parties plan to use fear, frugality and friendliness to win your vote.By Tim WatkinAnalysis: Labour's campaign strategy of stinginess has started to take shape, as it rolled out tax and welfare policies this week.Labour's big reveals - taking the GST off fruit and vegeta
Campaigns rev into gear over climate, dentalcare and cellphones
Get your teeth into the big announcements on climate change, cellphones and teeth. Caucus debates the BlackRock deal, China, free dentalcare affordability and teachers as the "phone police"Election 2023By Tim WatkinDrivers, start your engines. The campaign seemed to get into gear this week with the government making a number of announcements that looked to have at least one eye on the October elec
Missing in Action: Kingmakers, popular leaders, tax policy & something to believe in
The election is just two months away. 10 weeks. 72 days. Caucus returns looking at what's distinct about this campaign - no kingmaker, missed opportunities, weaker majors and stronger minor parties, Election 2023By Tim WatkinThe campaign proper is still weeks away, but the campaign in real terms is already in full swing. So Caucus is back.What marks out Election 2023 as different so far? The Cauc
Explaining The Red Tide: Kiwis hug Jacinda back as Labour breaks records
The crew open their envelopes and reveal their picks, as they make sense of Labour's govern-alone victory, National's much-needed rebuild, the return of te Pati Maori and the Greens' delight in the face of powerlessnessElection 2020By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereThrough the past three years, as grief and crises have hit New Zealand, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has reache
Wealth, weight, winners and the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard
Two days out, we hear surprise calls on wealth taxes and obesity and the Caucus crew debate the seats to watch, highs and lows, winners and losers. And we put our picks in an envelope.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereWhenever Sir Edmund Hillary was asked about whether he thought George Mallory might have beat him to the top of Mt Everest in the 1920s, he would point out that
Collins & Peters on thin ice as Ardern finds her feet
The New Zealand First Foundation in court, Judith Collins pays a price on Ponsonby Rd, Jacinda Ardern finds some form & a chance for Te Pati Maori.Election 2020By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereNational's not having the week Judith Collins would have prayed for.After a couple of strong debate performances and some solid policy releases, some National MPs were starting to
Collins goes vote plucking, while Peters makes 'last stand'
Caucus rates a fired-up leaders' debate as Collins looks to bring voters 'home', while Winston Peters rages as he's 'exonerated'.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereYou could almost see the basket in Judith Collins' arm during last night's Newshub Leaders' Debate, as she went merrily about her business picking fruit from the voter tree.Praise farmers and reassure
Sending out the political assassins as National shoots itself in the foot
With eight days, 18 hours, two minutes and 10 seconds until voting starts, party leaders are calling up hit-jobs as they scrap for their political lives. Plus, the debate debacles, ACT's rise and National's steady run of own goals.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAs the clock ticks down on this year's election campaign, the guns are coming out. I know, the usual politic
Gulliver's Election... and is Labour angling to govern alone?
Welcome to the recession, with giant debt, spending and unemployment that make previous campaigns look like Lilliput. How are New Zealand First are trying to recover & does Labour really want to govern alone?Election 2020By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAfter a week of heavy policy releases where the major parties have clung to the political centre like a limpet to a life ra
Timid tax, debating debates and say hello to Kinder Collins
Labour's tax policy is tentative, but is it also 'right for right now'? And is it negotiable? Judith Collins' policy releases point to less Crusher, more Kinder. Plus, how to mess up TV debates and the Matariki mood.By Tim WatkinIt was one of the big unanswered questions every political junkie was waiting for. No, not National's Infrastructure Bank. Definitely not a new public holiday. Though
The naughty prefect and the 'single source of truth'
Greens leader James Shaw has been under the cosh for his Green School decision, but what's going on behind the scenes and will it cost votes? Social media rears it's sulky head, vaccination lies and debate over 'the single source of truth'. Plus, is Winston Peters in cabinet or not?By Tim WatkinIt's a rule of the playground, probably even at a Green School. Naughty kids can get away with thin
Lockdown let-downs, leg-ups & two swing seats
As Auckland struggles through a "tricky" extended lockdown, who are the political winners & losers? We debate covid fatigue, who's won from the wage subsidies (hint: not women) and two up-for-grabs electorates - Ōhāriu and Whanganui.By Tim WatkinIt's been a tricky week for the country, especially the third of all New Zealanders living under lockdown level 3 in Auckland. And it's turned p
Test fail: Is Labour bordering on trouble?
Parties try to look tough as border policies are rolled out, Labour fails its testing test and what are the implications of delaying the election?By Tim WatkinThese are testing times for New Zealanders, as Auckland spends two weeks at level three. But news over the past week that the testing at our borders has fallen far short of what the government promised has put Labour on the back foot and ope
'Didn't that escalate quickly?'
What impact will the return of Covid in the community have on Election 2020? Plus Gerry Brownlee's conspiracies, Labour's Ardern-astic launch, and Merv & Mellow in Auckland Central.Election 2020By Tim WatkinCampaigns suspended just as they began. Election day in doubt. And - following the 'words beginning with C' theme from last week's Caucus podcast - heated debate over conspiracie
This election is brought to you by the letter C
Caucus returns for Election 2020 talking about the state of the parties, Covid debt and problems with our political culture.By Tim WatkinCampaigns. Culture. Character. And perhaps most of all, Covid-19. As the House rises today and politicians hit the road to pitch their woo to voters, those issues will be front of mind for the candidates.They were also where the new season of politics podcast Cau
We're Coming Back
The election's getting close and that can only mean one thing... Caucus is coming back. Presented by Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Scott Campbell.The election's getting close and that can only mean one thing...Caucus is back. And this election RNZ journalists Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin are joined by former Gallery reporter turned strategic consultant Scott Campbell. Ea
Coalition negotiations, THAT press conference & the supermarket dash
In our 13th Caucus, it's negotiation time. So we look at Winston Peters' post-election posturing, 'constitutional conventions' and what New Zealand First needs from the next three years. Plus, we unpack the election results and what they mean for the parties.Election 2017By Tim WatkinThat Winston, he's such an old curmudgeon. A funny old uncle. A bit cheeky, but good for a laugh. That's
How to win elections & influence things
We make the big calls two days from E-Day. What are the scenarios that could lead to forming a government, a last look at the polls & debates, & our highs and lows from the campaignElection 2017By Tim WatkinSo it all comes down to this: It's close. While the lack of polls this election means it's hard to pick trends, it looks clear that Labour's Adern-tastic August has hit a Septemb
Tax attacks & the price of Winston
Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Guyon Espiner discuss the fallout from Labour's sudden tax u-turn, the volatility of polls and the cost and bottom-lines of Winston Peters.By Tim WatkinPoliticians and u-turns go together like taxi divers and, well, u-turns. But a u-turn 10 days out from election day? On tax? It's a big call Labour has made today on a policy that needn't have been controversial
The truth hole, debates in the dock & what a government looks like
The panel discuss why both National and Labour seem to be having trouble with their sums, and why it's time to ask the minor parties what they really want.By Tim WatkinFinancial credibility and leadership. That's what this week's Caucus boils down to, with both National and Labour struggling with the former, but showing a fair bit of the latter. Then there are the minor parties and what
Where's Winston: Super stuff-ups & inside the leaders debates
It's all about Winston - his Super spin, bottom lines and how he chooses coalition partners. But it's also about the scrap for the family vote and what it's really like behind the scenes at a leaders debate
By Tim WatkinIt's been Winston week, so far. That changes tonight, with the first head-to-head major party leaders debate on TVNZ between Bill English and Jacinda Ardern. But thus far the
Everybody was PREFU fighting...
Lisa, Tim and Guyon discuss how PREFU has changed the campaign, how Dunne's departure may signal a changing of the generations, and how the minor parties want to change the conversation.By Tim WatkinPut the clubs down and back away. That's what Labour and National tried to do after the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) was released yesterday.The first moves by both major parties
Aus Wars, The Empire Taxes Back & The Return of the Parker
National starts its fight back as Bill English goes to boot camp, Jacinda Ardern negotiates her first international stoush and Grant Robertson opens the door to a Capital Gains Tax.By Tim WatkinIt's been an in-between week in New Zealand politics - between the fall of both Andrew Little and Metiria Turei and before the final pre-election fiscal update and the rise of the 'big policies&#x
How Metiria Turei saved the Labour Party
In this week's Caucus, the team discuss the Green Party strategy that may have (inadvertently) saved Labour. Was it OK to put Metiria Turei under such scrutiny? What next for the Greens? Election 2017By Tim WatkinThree weeks ago, Metiria Turei rolled the dice with nothing less at stake than all the gains the Greens had made in recent elections - from a 5-6 percent party to a 10-12 percent party.Fr
The Jacinda Effect: What’s really changed?
It's all about Jacinda. Labour's late leadership change has turned Election 17 on its head. But can Labour seize the moment and how will other parties respond?Election 2017By Tim WatkinWhat had been looking like a campaign that was being driven by the minor parties, has now pivoted back to focus on the two majors. Jacinda Ardern has created a spurt of - to use her words - "relentless positivi
Dirty(ish) deals, the nerdy truth about immigration & poverty… & more Metiria
Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin discuss Bill English's Epsom and Ohariu urges, whether the Greens are losing control, the link between New Zealand First's vote and immigration, plus the Perry incomes report.Election 2017By Tim WatkinThis time there's no cup of tea and little intrigue. Bill English has simply and directly told National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to
Tax & spend, Māori seats and the confessions of a co-leader
Labour's fiscals, Winston's growing spending tab, who wants the Māori seats, what a Green Party voter looks like and whether it's OK for Metiria Turei to have deceived WINZ (oh, and the Greens' actual family policy!).Election 2017By Tim WatkinLabour and National are doubling down on the budgetary hands they have dealt themselves after the release of Labour's fiscal plan this week. The gap bet
Fighting for families and the Greens' secondary explosive device
We talk about Barry Coates being "nuanced when he should have been unequivocal" on coalition agreements, as well as the battle over National and Labour's families packages.Election 2017By Tim WatkinIn today's episode, Green MP Barry Coates' ill-considered suggestion that the Greens might prefer a second election to a Labour-New Zealand First coalition, which could keep his party on the s
Coalition building and bashing
The team discuss who's making nice with whom, the return of Shane Jones, a Greens apology, Todd Barclay implications and Māori Party-Labour fisticuffs.Election 2017By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereWhy is New Zealand First assumed to be the king maker? Is everyone a bit over-excited about the second coming of Shane Jones? And can the party mobilise the regions to push their v
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