On Point
On Point is a financial markets podcast from Craigs Investment Partners. It covers the latest developments in the economy and investment opportunities. The show provides general information and is not financial advice. It encourages listeners to seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Episodes
ep 382 | The week ahead - Oil prices surge ahead of the Fed meeting
A busy week looms, with monetary policy decisions due in the US, UK and Japan. Corporate earnings releases will also be closely watched, with some 180 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Tech will be very much in the spotlight as we hear from US heavyweights Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, as well as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in South Korea.
ep 381 | How the '87 crash shaped a generation
The sharemarket crash of 1987 was a major global event, but it hit New Zealand harder than other countries. Our sharemarket fell much more than the likes of the US, UK and Japan, while the recovery took much longer. That scarred an generation and changed the fabric of how we invest, but are those bad memories beginning to fade?
ep 380 | The week ahead - Will strong earnings put markets in a better mood?
A cooler US inflation reading and strong bank earnings releases weren't enough to offset the nervousness, for which there have been several catalysts. US crude oil prices are up, while hawkish comments from Fed officials pushed interest rates higher. Investors have also continued to sell chip stocks and tech exposures on the back of valuation concerns. With earnings season ramping up this week
ep 379 | Is America just built different?
America has dominated the global economy for decades despite repeated predictions its best days are behind it. Is the strength of the United States due to its geographical advantages, entrepreneurial spirit or financial advantages? Let's discuss some of the reasons America has been able to repeatedly reinvent itself, and regularly prove more resilient than expected.
ep 378 | The week ahead - It's OCR week! Will the RBNZ hike or hold?
It'll be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed for the Matariki holiday on Friday. The clear highlight will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday, which is shaping up as a very interesting one. Market pricing implies a 76% chance of a hike, although oil prices have fallen back to well below the base case presented by the RBNZ in May, and in
ep 377 | How is the second half of 2026 shaping up?
The first six months of the calendar year were volatile, punctuated by the conflict in Iran. Despite that, markets have performed very well. What might the second half bring, and does the recent retrenchment in oil prices clear the way for more strong gains?
ep 376 | The week ahead - Oil prices crash as the Strait of Hormuz reopens
Oil prices fell 10% on the back of hopes for a sustained resolution in the Middle East grew. That saw US crude finish the week just below US$70, almost 40% below last month’s peak and the lowest since late February. Are we out of the woods when it comes to inflation and rising interest rate risk?
ep 375 | Deals and dots mean changes for central banks
A few different balls are up in the air across the central banking world, and change is afoot. Recent declines in oil prices have seen the odds of OCR hikes change, while the Federal Reserve in the US has entered a new era with Kevin Warsh as Chair. We’ll get a useful sense check in a fortnight from the Reserve Bank, while the evolution of the Fed will be a longer-term theme to monitor.
ep 374 | Should we worry about rising government debt?
Investors often ask us how worried they should be about rising government debt. It’s a very fair question, and Budget 2026 showed that New Zealand’s books remain under pressure. If you or I live beyond our means, borrow too much and can’t repay our debts, we’ll eventually run out of options. However, governments aren’t households and that’s an important distinction. How should investors think abou
ep 373 | The week ahead - The Kevin Warsh era begins at the Fed
Central banks will be in focus this week, with the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision the highlight on Thursday morning (NZ time). As well as being Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Chair, we'll also get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed. Monetary policy decisions are also due in Australia, Japan and the UK.
ep 372 | The SpaceX IPO is bigger than you think
SpaceX is about to become one of the largest listed companies in the world, with an estimated valuation of almost US$1.8 trillion. Whether this valuation is justified is an area of intense debate right now. Some see an extraordinary growth story spanning launch services, satellite communications and artificial intelligence. Others are questioning whether a company that is not yet profitable should
ep 371 | The week ahead - Tech stocks stumble as SpaceX prepares to debut
It was a challenging end to the week on Wall Street, with the growth-heavy Nasdaq index falling 4.2% on Friday, its biggest daily decline since April last year. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 2.6% for the week, breaking a nine-week winning streak. Looking ahead, US inflation will be in the spotlight this week, with the CPI and PPI both due for release. These will come ahead of next week's Fe
ep 370 | Don't let your home bias be your downfall
Wherever you go in the world, it’s very common for investors to have a home bias. People tend to anchor their portfolio with what they know, which is the local market. Kiwis will often have a healthy exposure to New Zealand shares, Australians usually start with what’s on the ASX, and Americans are renowned for not looking past their own borders. That can also feel like a safer approach, especiall
ep 369 | The week ahead - Markets keep marching higher in May
US shares had another great month with the S&P 500 index rising 5.1% in May. However, only three out of 11 sectors were up for the month, with a 15.9% gain from the dominant tech sector driving the overall market up. Other markets were strong too, with emerging market shares continued their stellar run and rising 9.5% in May. That sees them up 24.8% year-to-date and up 49.7% in the past 12 mon
ep 368 | Why inflation expectations are so important right now
We’ve seen a lot of economic releases over the last several weeks, but the most important of all were probably the two that covered inflation expectations. It might sound odd that what people think might happen trumps what’s actually happening across the economy, but right now that’s very much the case. Expectations matter because they influence behaviour, and behaviour drives outcomes. That’s esp
ep 367 | The week ahead - Will the RBNZ hike or hold the OCR?
A massive week looms here in New Zealand. The RBNZ will deliver its latest policy decision on Wednesday and while there is only an outside chance of an OCR hike, markets expect the RBNZ to lay the groundwork for moves at the following meeting. A day later we'll get Budget 2026, which is shaping as a very challenging one to deliver in an election year.
ep 366 | The sharemarket that’s been crushing the US
The US sharemarket has had a great run of late, rebounding strong from the March lows and hitting fresh highs. The S&P 500 is now up more than eight per cent in 2026 (including dividends), and we're only a third of the way through the year. That's impressive, especially given the volatility we've seen lately. However, while the S&P 500 is getting all the headlines there's another quietly o
ep 365 | What might OCR hikes mean for markets?
The Reserve Bank meets later this month, and there’s an outside chance the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will rise by 0.25%. If there’s no move this week, the focus will shift to the July meeting, where markets see an increase as almost certain. What might it mean for the economy, financial markets and investors?
ep 364 | The week ahead - Trump and Xi to meet against a volatile backdrop
A highlight of the week will be the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, scheduled for May 14-15. This will be the first since Trump returned to office last January, and there will be no shortage of issues to discuss.
ep 363 | What’s the Consumers Price Index anyway?
Inflation is always a hot topic in financial markets, and it’ll be even more prominent as fuel prices push it higher over the next quarter or two. There’s a healthy cynicism about our official inflation figures, and many people would argue their own cost of living has increased more than these would suggest. So how do we measure inflation anyway, and what exactly is the Consumers Price Index?
ep 362 | The week ahead - Is our unemployment rate headed higher?
In the coming week, the economic highlight will be the April jobs report in the US. On the central banking front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be in the spotlight on Tuesday afternoon. Here in Aotearoa, the March labour force report will be the highest profile release, while we'll also get the results of another dairy auction. During the upcoming week, more than 100 S&P 500 com
ep 361 | Why is the US sharemarket so strong?
The S&P 500 index in the US has increased for four consecutive weeks, rebounding strongly from the weakness in March. That leaves it up 13 per cent from the recent lows, and almost three per cent above its pre-conflict peak. You could be forgiven for wondering why the sharemarket is hitting new records, with oil prices still very high and the situation in the Middle East unresolved. There’s ne
ep 360 | The week ahead - Will Big Tech earnings push the market higher?
Some 180 S&P 500 companies are due to report this week, representing 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap. Half of that (so about 22%) comes on Wednesday, which will be a very busy day for corporate earnings releases. We’ll hear from five of the so-called "Magnificent 7" cohort this week (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft), as well as Coca-Cola, Visa, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?
Stagflation has been in the headlines in recent weeks, as the oil price shock threatens to push inflation back up while taking a big chunk out of economic activity at the same time. The term is used to describe the highly undesirable combination of low growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Could we see a return to the bad old days (economically, that is) of the 1970s?
ep 358 | The week ahead - US shares surge to new highs, but will they stay there?
The S&P 500 index in the US surged another 4.5% last week to close at fresh highs, after some positive developments in the Middle East. After being down 9.1% from its January peak in late March, the S&P 500 has rebounded 12.3% to surpass those previous highs and sit 4.1% above where it started the year.
ep 357 | Conflict leaves markets at a crucial crossroads
With the war between the US and Iran entering its seventh week, we’re close to an important crossroads for markets. In the last several days we’ve had a ceasefire agreement, the highest-level diplomatic meetings between the two nations since the 1979 Iranian revolution, and US moves to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks failed. The situation remains fragile, and we’re already seeing the imp
ep 356 | The week ahead - Markets monitor Iran talks as earnings season kicks off
Investors will be closely monitoring US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the coming days, the highest-level diplomatic meeting between Iran and the US since the 1979 Iranian revolution. This will comes as the quarterly international earnings season kicks off with the US banking heavyweights set to report this week, as well as Netflix, PepsiCo and TSMC.
ep 355 | What's the best way to invest that lump sum?
If you’re lucky enough to have a bit of surplus cash right now, it’s a difficult time to think about putting it to work. Diving in boots and all is foolhardy, while waiting in the wings for perfect conditions can be equally unwise. What's the best strategy for investors to use?
ep 354 | The week ahead - Markets rebound, but will the optimism last?
The focus this week will remain on the Middle East, with US President Trump’s ten-day pause in attacks on Iran’s energy facilities set to expire on Monday. The key economic release is likely to be the CPI inflation report for March in the US, where annual inflation is expected to jump to a two-year high of 3.4%. Here in Aotearoa the main event will be the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisio
ep 353 | Is it time to sell stocks?
The last month will have been disconcerting for investors, especially those new to financial markets. Some will be tempted to sell out, cutting their losses in case the conflict escalates and markets fall further. If you're a trader with a time horizon that’s measured in weeks or months, maybe that's the right approach. However, if your foray into share investing is part of a longer-term s
ep 352 | The week ahead - Local business confidence set to slump?
The ongoing conflict in Iran will remain front and centre for investors, while another batch of economic indicators for March are released. The highest profile release will be the US jobs report, while we'll also get the ISM manufacturing index and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence. Here in New Zealand, the ANZ Business Outlook survey for March will be a highlight. A fall in sentiment
ep 351 | Are we set for early OCR hikes as petrol prices surge?
The conflict between the US and Iran has disrupted one of the world’s most important trade routes, the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of this will feed directly into local inflation, reversing some of our recent progress and reminding households that global events can still hit close to home. How will the Reserve Bank react to this, and are we set for early OCR hikes?
ep 350 | The week ahead - All eyes on the RBNZ Governor
Global flash PMIs for March will be the key global releases this week, as some of the first economic indicators we’ll get that cover the period since the war began. Here In New Zealand, all eyes will be on RBNZ Governor Dr Anna Breman on Tuesday. She is scheduled to give a speech discussing the potential impacts of the conflict on the New Zealand economy.
ep 349 | Should we worry about the election, or get on with it?
With the election less than eight months away now, investors are increasingly starting to think about what it means for the economy, asset prices and their portfolios. The election campaign will no doubt be entertaining, with the usual twists and turns. However, there’s no need for a complete rethink of your investment strategy, nor should we let political uncertainty stop us taking action.
ep 348 | The week ahead - What will central banks have to say about surging oil prices?
Central banks will be the key focus in the days ahead (outside of geopolitics), with interest rate decisions due from several major policymaking groups. The Federal Reserve in the US will be the highlight, while we'll also hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
ep 347 | What should investors do about rising oil prices?
The situation in the Middle East is moving very quickly and like any geopolitical event, it’s difficult to anticipate where it’ll go next. US crude oil prices surged 35.6 per cent last week and at the beginning of this week, prices jumped above US$100. What might this mean for inflation, interest rates and financial markets?
ep 346 | The week ahead - Markets to keep grappling with Middle East uncertainty
The Middle East will be the key focus in the coming week, as investors consider what a protracted conflict could mean for energy prices (both oil as well as natural gas), and in turn inflation, central bank policy settings, and economic growth.
ep 345 | Should we be worried about a concentrated US sharemarket?
One of the biggest talking points for investors in the past year or two has been the increasingly concentrated nature of the US sharemarket. The top ten stocks represent a whopping 38 per cent of the index today, compared with 20-30 per cent historically. A few mega-cap stocks now have a huge influence over where the world’s biggest market (and therefore most of our retirement savings) is headed a
ep 344 | The week ahead - US shares remain soft as other markets rise
The S&P 500 index in the US fell slightly during February, dragged down by higher-growth and technology stocks. However, it was an extremely strong month for many other global markets and assets. Japanese shares surged 10.4%, while UK shares rallied 6.7% and emerging market equities were up 5.4%. The ASX 200 in Australia rose 3.7%, while the domestic NZX 50 index was up 2.2% in February, its s
ep 343 | Bumpy ride ahead for markets? If so, that's quite normal.
It’s been a sluggish start to the year for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 has also been more volatile of late, having fallen for five of the past eight weeks. It feels like it could be another bumpy year, especially with the US midterm elections ahead. We might even see a bigger sell-off in the months ahead. That’s not something to be afraid of, and it doesn’t mean the market can’t put in ano
ep 342 | The week ahead - Is that the end of Trump's tariff plans?
The market reaction to Friday's Supreme Court decision on tariffs will be in focus this week, while President Trump is also set to deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Thursday's ANZ Business Outlook for February will be the key release here in New Zealand, while a plethora of NZX companies are set to announce results in the days ahead. Further afield, investors will be watch
ep 341 | Inflation - is 3% the new 2%?
Inflation is well down from the multi-decade high of 7.3 per cent that prevailed a few years ago, but it remains stubbornly above that elusive two per cent level. We’re not the only ones grappling with pricing pressures, and there’s a growing chorus of commentators asking whether something more structural is at play. If three (or even four) per cent was new two per cent, what would this mean for i
ep 340 | The week ahead - Will the RBNZ bring forward its OCR hiking plans?
A busy week looms, with the February Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) a clear highlight. The focus will be on the tone and how the Official Cash Rate (OCR) track differs from the November MPS. That had the first hike pencilled in for early 2027, although markets see it coming later this year. Will the RBNZ bring it forward to match?
ep 339 | Here's where to look for evidence of a recovery
The local reporting season kicks off this week across the NZX, and we’ll get some useful insights into the state of the economy. These will tell us if the long-awaited recovery is truly upon us, or if it’s another false start like we saw a year ago. Here's what we'll be watching and why.
ep 338 | The week ahead - Where to next for markets, after last week's volatility?
It was a very volatile week for markets, with a strong rebound on Friday flattering returns from many asset classes and masking some of the weakness. Growth stocks have been hit hardest, with the software sector in particular facing a sharp sell-off. We've also seen big moves in precious metals and crypto. Which asset classes have been most resilient amidst the volatility, and what should inve
ep 337 | What can the “January barometer” tell us about the rest of this year?
The first month of the year is behind us and despite what feels like a year's worth of market drama, the US sharemarket posted another healthy gain. It rose 1.4 per cent in January, a very solid return that was above the 1.1 per cent average for all of the January's since 1950. That bodes well for the balance of this year, according to the "January Barometer".
ep 336 | The week ahead - What might a Warsh-led Fed mean for markets?
Markets will continue to digest the news of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair this week, while monetary policy decisions loom in the UK, Europe and Australia. It will be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed on Friday for Waitangi Day. Ahead of that, we'll get the results of another dairy auction as well as the December quarter labour force report. The international
ep 335 | The biggest investment lesson of 2025
There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2025, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. However, there was one in particular that stood out, because if investors didn't do this they left some significant gains on the table.
ep 334 | The week ahead - Fed decision and Mag 7 earnings incoming!
There's plenty to watch this week, including the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. However, investors will get the chance to refocus on what matters most for share prices, and that's corporate earnings. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including four of the so-called Magnificent 7 cohort. We'll hear from Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple this wee
ep 333 | What is Wall Street expecting from the S&P 500 in 2026?
It’s been prediction season on Wall Street, with all the gurus consulting their crystal balls to firm up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 index will finish 2026. Let's take a closer look at how the market is expected to perform this year, how that compares with history, and how investors should think about these.
ep 332 | The week ahead - Is inflation set to exceed RBNZ forecasts?
A busy week looms locally, with the highlight likely to be the latest quarterly inflation report on Friday. If it comes in above RBNZ forecasts for a 2.7% annual gain, which might this mean for the path of interest rates?
ep 331 | Why investors need to watch Japan closely this year
While almost every country in the world has been reducing interest rates from multi-decade highs, Japan has been doing the exact opposite. The Japanese economy isn’t as dominant as it once was, but it is critically important in terms of global financial markets, especially for foreign exchange and bond yields. We’ve seen some big moves in bond yields, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yiel
ep 330 | Six predictions for 2026
Will the OCR start to rise again this year, how might sharemarkets perform and where is the NZ dollar headed? Nobody has a perfectly working crystal ball, but its a useful process to go through to help firm up your thinking nonetheless. Despite the futility of trying to forecast where financial markets are headed, here's our contribution to the noise!
ep 329 | Where are house prices headed in 2026?
Welcome to a new year! Let's tackle an important and popular topic that every self-respecting kiwi has a strong opinion about - the housing market. Why have prices done nothing for three years, is 2026 the year of the housing market recovery, and what should prospective homeowners or investors be expecting?
ep 328 | Five observations from a big year for investors
There’s just three trading days to go in 2025, and that’s all. We’re pretty much at the end of 2025, so let's look back on how returns from most of the main asset classes stacked up and make a few observations for investors.
ep 327 | Summer encore - The uncomfortable truth about inflation
Inflation is back the target band and while it's not dead and buried, it's at least contained. However, that doesn't mean we can declare the cost-of-living crisis over. The things with inflation is that it measures the rate of change in prices, not the level of prices. Let's talk about why that matters.
ep 326 | Summer encore - Should I pay of the mortgage faster, or invest that spare cash?
Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? If this isn't the most common investor question, then it's definitely in the top five. The textbook, Excel spreadsheet, and your purist accountant friend are all likely to suggest paying down the mortgage. There's good reason for that, but when might it make sense to ignore the rules and do some investing on the side anyway?
ep 325 | Summer encore - How do the uber-rich invest?
Here's a fresh take on a popular episode from way back in June. We took a look at the 2025 UBS Global Family Office Report, which captured the views of 317 family office clients with an average net worth of US$2.7 billion! Attitudes to risk, governance practices, running costs, staffing and succession planning were all covered, but it’s where they put their money that interested us the most!
ep 324 | The week ahead - a MONSTER week to close out the year!
The last full trading week of 2025 is shaping up as an incredibly busy one right across the world. In the US, delayed jobs and inflation reports will take centre stage, despite both likely being subject to data quality issues due to the shutdown. Central banks will also be in focus, with monetary policy decisions coming from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The calenda
ep 323 | Wrapping up 2025, and looking ahead to next year
This year will soon draw to a close, and despite plenty of ups and down along the way it's proved to be a lucrative one for investors. Let's discuss some of the highlights and key events, before turning our attention to how 2026 will unfold. How should investors be thinking about the year ahead, and what might financial markets bring?
ep 322 | The week ahead - Will we get a Fed rate cut to finish the year?
The focus this week will be on central bank decisions, with the main event to be the Federal Reserve on Thursday morning (NZ time). Closer to home, the labour force report for November is due across the Tasman, while the September quarter manufacturing survey will be of interest here in New Zealand.
ep 321 | Are investors facing lower returns in the years ahead?
Predicting investment returns isn’t easy. Nobody can do this with accuracy, regardless of their experience, intellect or resources. However, when the collective crystal ball gazing from some of the world’s leading investment firms is collated, it’s worth a look. US-based Horizon Actuarial has done just that with its annual survey of capital market assumptions. Here's what they found.
ep 320 | The week ahead - Is that the end of the OCR cuts?
Wholesale interest rates increased to more than three-month highs in the wake of the final RBNZ decision of 2025. The NZ dollar also rose strongly against most trading partners, as markets speculate the central bank is done cutting the OCR. Should we worry about that, or is it a good thing the RBNZ might be done?
ep 319 | Why investors should embrace a market sell-off
After a very strong period that has seen global sharemarket hit new highs, volatility has returned. This will be causing a lot of consternation among investors, particularly those who have entered the fray in recent months. However, for new investors rough markets are your friend and these are periods we should to look forward to, rather than fear.
ep 318 | The week ahead - Will this week's OCR cut be the last?
A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the main event set to be the Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision and Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) from the Reserve Bank on Wednesday afternoon. Markets see a cut of 0.25% as a certainty, while pricing implies about a 50/50 chance of an additional cut beyond that, making the MPS forecasts important.
ep 317 | The local sharemarket just hit a record high, or did it?
Last month the NZX 50 index hit a fresh record high, finally surpassing the previous peak from January 2021. It was a long time coming. Other markets recovered from their post-COVID hangover much more quickly, but we’ve taken almost five years. At first glance, this would all suggest that our market has regained all its lost ground, surpassed the previous market peak and pushed on to bigger and be
ep 316 | The week ahead - Will the NVIDIA earnings release settle the AI boom or bubble debate?
There's a lot to watch this week, including a string of delayed US economic releases. However, these might all be overshadowed by the world's most important stock. Tech heavyweight and AI poster child NVIDIA is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings report on Wednesday in the US.
ep 315 | The week ahead - The kiwi dollar sinks further
It was a “risk-off” week for global markets, with most indices slipping as investors became more nervous about extended valuations across parts of the US market. The local NZX 50 bucked the global trend with a small rise, while the NZ dollar continued to drift lower. It fell to US$0.56 against the greenback, the lowest since just after Liberation Day in April. The currency is also the weakest sinc
ep 314 | Could Labour’s CGT policy be a winner?
Labour's targeted capital gains tax (CGT) announcement last week was interesting. We're yet to see the detail, but has it got some merit? Taxes, property and politics are three topics that lead to robust debate amongst many New Zealanders, so let's roll those into one and talk about this latest proposal!
ep 313 | The week ahead - Is unemployment set to rise again?
A busy week looms in New Zealand, with the highlight set to be the September quarter labour force report, due Wednesday. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. The latest Financial Stability Report from the RBNZ will be of interest too. Last but not least, it’s another big week of earnings releases with more than 130 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report results.
ep 312 | How can savers deal with declining deposit rates?
Lower interest rates have been a cause for celebration for many people in recent months. However, conservative savers with money on term deposit won’t be quite so enthusiastic. They were sitting pretty 18 months ago, with the six-month term deposit rate offering a yield of six per cent, the highest since 2008. Since then, rates have slumped more than 40 per cent to under 3.5 per cent. That’s a hef
ep 311 | Are credit concerns a canary in the coalmine?
US credit markets have delivered strong returns this year. Companies have been issuing record amounts of debt, borrowing costs have remained manageable and bond investors have pocketed solid gains. However, in recent weeks cracks have appeared beneath the surface, and the pace at which the problems have emerged is worth paying attention to.
ep 310 | The week ahead - Inflation is headed up again, should we be worried?
Investors will be watching US economic releases ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with the September consumer price index (CPI) report a likely highlight. Inflation will be front and centre here in New Zealand too. The latest CPI report is due on Monday, with the headline measure likely to hit 3.0% (the highest in more than 12 months).
ep 309 | What does a weaker currency mean for the economy?
In recent weeks and months, the NZ dollar has weakened against most trading partners. It's down six per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of July, while it’s at a three year low against the Australian dollar. We’re under 0.50 against the euro, something we haven’t seen since late 2009, more than 15 years ago. It’s doing exactly what you’d expect it to against a challenging economi
ep 308 | The week ahead - Trump threatens China with new tariffs
The government shutdown is now into its 12th day and there aren't any signs of a compromise yet. At least we can count on the private sector to remain open, and a slew of corporate earnings releases to fill the gap this week. More than 30 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including some of the US banking heavyweights. Here in New Zealand, we should get a fresh housing market r
ep 307 | Are US stocks in a bubble?
It’s been a fantastic run for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 index is up 18 per cent in the past 12 months, and 83 per cent over three years. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has commented on this, noting that “equity prices are fairly highly valued” during a recent speech. Are US stocks in a bubble, and how worried should investors be about where valuations have got to?
ep 306 | The week ahead - Will the RBNZ cut by 25 or 50?
A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the latest Official Cash Rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) the clear highlight on Wednesday. Another cut is assured, but will it be another 0.25% or will the RBNZ opt for a larger 0.50% move?
ep 305 | What might the final quarter of 2025 bring?
The first three quarters of the calendar year are behind us, and investors have again been well rewarded for ignoring the noise and staying the course. If the global economy remains resilient and corporate earnings continue to grow solidly, share prices are likely to remain buoyant. We have seasonality on our side too, with this home stretch typically a positive period for global markets.
ep 304 | Has your home bias left money on the table?
The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has inevitably weighed on the performance of local investments. Other countries have had a much better time of it, and there have been some excellent opportunities for strong investment returns of late. They just haven't been here in Aotearoa. This real
ep 303 | The week ahead - Soft GDP puts a 50-basis point OCR cut on the table
What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve since last year. The Russell 2000 (a US small-cap index) was up for a seventh straight week, while credit spreads tightened to levels last seen in 1998. Here in New Zealand, we saw a very weak GDP report, that's got people talking about a 50
